On May 18, the State Council announced the “Light Industry Adjustment and Revitalization Planâ€. The main points involved in the paper industry include: energy conservation and emission reduction; elimination of backward production capacity; accelerated implementation of technological transformation, improvement of key equipment autonomy; promotion of forestry and paper integration, etc. . Although the industrial adjustment and revitalization plan has a three-year deadline (2009-2011), its focus is still on optimizing the industrial structure in the medium and long term, and promoting the stable and sustainable development of the industry. Shanghai Securities believes that the plan once again emphasizes the establishment of an industrial exit mechanism. For example, the elimination of backward production capacity and the implementation of pollution control measures can be strictly implemented, which will help promote the industry to excess capacity, thereby improving industry supply and demand, alleviating the pressure of current oversupply and boosting The industry has come out of the trough. The capital market is increasingly optimistic about the paper products listed companies, and also reflects the stock price of paper products listed companies. At present, the paper products sector has risen 5.5 percentage points over the market in the past month, making it one of the best performing markets in the near future.
In the case of continuous strength of the paper products sector, according to statistics, the current dynamic PE level of 22.74 times is still near the historical low, and also lower than the dynamic PE level of 25 times the current average of A shares. From the perspective of PB, the valuation of the papermaking sector in the A-share market is still high, twice that of the European and American markets, and much higher than the Hong Kong market. At present, the valuation of the paper sector in the A-share market is at the bottom of the history and lower than the market average. However, the PB valuation is not superior to similar companies in the overseas market, but considering the overall valuation premium of the A-share market relative to the overseas market, A The relative valuation of the stock paper sector still has a large margin of safety.
From the perspective of product prices, most analysts believe that with the stabilization of the macro economy and the arrival of the peak sales season, the increase in demand for terminals will increase the elasticity of demand for inventories, and the price increase is expected to be truly implemented. In today's investment in the newly launched analyst real-time ranking system, CITIC Securities analyst Xu Jun's recent earnings score ranking has increased by nearly a thousand compared with the forward earnings score ranking, which is located in our selection of potential analysts. In January this year, Xu Jun pointed out that the paper industry's first-quarter profit rose by a quarter-on-quarter, and gave the industry a stronger rating than the market. In March, according to the analysis of paper product sales data, "the sales continued to pick up, and the bottom rebounded." The conclusion, and continue to maintain the industry rating stronger than the market; in April, the overall recovery of the paper industry, the first quarter earnings data further verified Xu Jun's judgment on the paper industry's economic recovery, thus he In the recent research report, Xu Jun is still optimistic about the profit prospects of the paper industry, and continues to make the conclusion that "the second quarter profit growth is established". In the new research report, he predicted that the dominant cultural paper, white cardboard and coated paper are expected to receive a new round of price increases in the next quarter due to environmental protection and demand recovery, and the arrival of the traditional sales season.
The implementation of new environmental standards on May 1 will accelerate the pace of the industry
The new "Pulp and Paper Industry Water Pollutant Emission Standards" will be implemented on May 1. The new standard is more rigorous and meticulous in terms of pollutant emission targets than before. The focus of the elimination will still be low-grade cultural papers with non-wood pulp as the main raw material for papermaking. According to our calculations, the current backward production capacity is about 10 million tons, which is equivalent to about 12% of the industry's output in 2008. Therefore, assuming the new standards can be strictly enforced, the industry supply will be significantly reduced. According to the number of outdated production capacity just announced by the National Development and Reform Commission, the industry will still eliminate backward production capacity of 500,000 tons in 2009 and will phase out 2 million tons by 2011. According to this goal, in the absence of significant improvement in current demand, the industry will be effectively boosted and the industry will be better. Of course, it is undeniable that the degree of improvement of the industry's prosperity in the new "Standards" still depends on the implementation of the policy, and the implementation effects of the previous years have made us still have high hopes for this policy.
Layout paper, white cardboard, cultural paper account for a larger company
In the current situation where the overall demand is still sluggish, the rebound in profitability will be the main driver of the continued growth in the second and second half of the year. Based on this judgment, we can see that although the gradual recovery of gross profit margin has become an inevitable trend with the digestion of high raw material stocks in the previous period, the current upstream raw materials have already rebounded from the price of paper. Under this circumstance, whether the price of paper can rise accordingly to pass on the cost, and the increase of gross profit space becomes a key factor affecting performance. The rise in paper prices depends on the type of paper. In essence, due to the different supply and demand relationships of various paper types, the market prices tend to show a trend of differentiation, even quite different. Therefore, Industrial Securities believes that the more intense the expected price increase, the greater the rebound in the performance of the company. The price of white card and copper paper in various paper varieties is expected to rebound. Followed by cultural paper, the price of the national energy conservation and emission reduction policy is expected to usher in a rebound. Therefore, these three paper types will become our investment. As far as the major listed companies are concerned, their judgment on the market trend will affect the reserve of raw materials, which will directly affect the degree of rebound of the gross profit margin in the later period. Therefore, it should be combined with the actual situation of the company for specific analysis. The final screening companies are still Sun Paper, Chenming Paper and Bohui Paper.
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