Lead: Looking back on 2018, the price of national waste yellow paper rose first and then fell. In the first half of the year, the policy of importing waste paper tightened to stimulate the price increase of domestic waste paper. In the second half of the year, Sino-US trade disputes suppressed the rise of national waste prices. Affected by the continued increase in inventory pressure on paper mills, the average monthly price of national waste yellow paper fell to 1,750 yuan/ton in December, the lowest for the year. For the price trend of 2019 national waste yellow paper, Zhuo Chuang Information expects that the price of national waste yellow paper will be bottomed before the Spring Festival, and the price of national waste yellow paper will rise after the Spring Festival.
The average price of national waste yellow paper in the fourth quarter was 2,204 yuan / ton
In the fourth quarter of 2018, the price of national waste yellow paper fell volatility. According to Zhuo Chuang information, the average price of national waste yellow paper in the fourth quarter of 2018 was 2,204 yuan / ton, down 7.55% year-on-year and 24.80%. The logic of the price fluctuation of the national waste yellow paper in the fourth quarter of 2018 is as follows.
First of all, the demand for finished paper in the peak season was seriously worse than expected, resulting in pressure on the paper mill's starting load, and interest in demand for waste paper fell from a high level. Among them, the ultra-large paper mills tried to support the price stability, but because of the spread of market pessimism, the strategy that led to the sales of waste paper to help the finished paper sales had no obvious effect. The pessimism is mainly due to the decline in domestic consumption levels and the expected reduction in demand for packaging paper under trade disputes unilaterally provoked by the United States. Under this expectation, it was once a powerful tool for regulating the sales and price of finished papers – the trend of waste paper prices, which was eventually abandoned by the oversized paper mills due to its inability to function.
The average price of national waste yellow paper in December may be the lowest in the year.
Looking back on 2018, the price of national waste yellow paper rose first and then fell. In the first half of the year, the policy of importing waste paper tightened to stimulate the price increase of domestic waste paper. In the second half of the year, Sino-US trade disputes suppressed the rise of national waste prices.
With the demarcation of March 2016, the price trend of waste yellow paper in the past five years has been oscillating after the low level consolidation. At the end of September 2016, the implementation of the new road transportation policy has intensified the bullish sentiment of the waste paper market, and in the finished paper. Driven by market speculation, the price trend of waste paper turned from a low shock to a shock.
According to Zhuo Chuang Information, the average price of national waste yellow paper in 2014-2016 was 1,211 yuan / ton, 1,156 yuan / ton, 1,237 yuan / ton, up -2.50%, -4.54%, 7.01%, respectively. Stage price changes are more moderate. In 2017 and from January to October 2018, the average price of national waste yellow paper was 1959 yuan / ton, 2676 yuan / ton, up 58.37% and 36.60% respectively. The price increase at this stage is very prominent.
In 2018, the price of national waste yellow paper paper showed a downward trend. In the first half of 2018, the price of national waste yellow paper continued to rise, mainly due to the natural growth of labor and other costs, the expected optimistic mainstream market mentality, and the tightening of solid waste import policy, which led to a reduction of nearly 50% in the amount of imported waste paper. . Among them, affected by the May 2 import and export inspection and the 30-day suspension of CCIC certification, the average monthly price of national waste yellow paper in June rose to 3,043 yuan / ton, the highest in the year.
In the second half of 2018, the price of national waste yellow paper fell from the high level in the year, mainly due to the decline in the number of new export orders under the Sino-US trade dispute, the exit of the speculative atmosphere in the finished paper market, the urgent need for downstream compression of finished paper, and the urgent need for paper mills to destock. And other factors. Among them, due to the continuous increase in inventory pressure on paper mills, the average monthly price of national waste yellow paper fell to 1,750 yuan / ton in December, the lowest in the year.
It is expected that the national waste yellow paper will rise after the Spring Festival.
Looking forward to the price of national waste yellow paper in the first quarter of 2019, we need to first pay attention to the following aspects.
1. Pay attention to the downtime of the downstream paper mills during the Spring Festival. Zhuo Chuang Information expects that the downtime of downstream paper mills will increase significantly from 2017.
2. Confirm the original intention of the first batch of external waste approval in 2019 as high as 5.03 million tons. Zhuo Chuang Information believes that the first batch of external waste quotas in 2019 is huge, which may be the adjustment of the approval method after the Ministry of Eco-Environment summarizes the advantages and disadvantages of the 2018 external waste approval method, instead of releasing the signal of the amount of imported waste paper. .
3. Pay attention to the production situation of Chongqing Xiaolong's 550,000 tons packaging paper project. According to Zhuo Chuang Information, the project will be put into operation after the Spring Festival, which may have a greater impact on the supply and demand of waste paper in the southwest market.
In summary, Zhuo Chuang Information expects that in the first quarter of 2019, the price of scrap yellow paper before the Spring Festival may be completed, and the price of scrap yellow paper after the Spring Festival is expected to rise.
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