Introduction: 2016 is the year of entering the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan". Many data and most of the data in China's macro economy are down. In the face of such a situation, what will happen to the orders of China's paper packaging industry in 2016?
2016 is the year of entering the “Thirteenth Five-Year Planâ€. Many of China’s macroeconomic data and most of the data are in the downside. The traditional industry continues to enter a period of deep adjustment, whether it is real estate or heavy chemical industry, or we have driven China’s economic high speed in the past. The growth of investment is clearly down. So, what is the future of packaging and printing? The quarterly quarter of 2016 is fleeting, and companies in the printing and packaging industry have begun to review and forecast production orders this year to ensure that they use less liquidity to meet their orders.
Then, what will happen to the orders of China's paper packaging industry in 2016? We have to answer this question from the operation of several major industries downstream -
From the sales of the smart terminal industry market. As early as the second half of last year, many second-tier mobile phone manufacturers had different levels of inventory backlog in both carrier channels and dealer channels. In January 2016, Apple’s sales in China fell by 35% from December; while Samsung’s performance was even more bleak. Samsung’s smartphone sales in China fell nearly half in January. Therefore, we can predict that many smartphone manufacturers have a large backlog of inventory, which will further affect orders in the next two or three months.
Second, look at the changes in the performance of the daily chemical products industry. The daily chemical industry is a major customer in the packaging and printing industry. However, under the influence of the economic environment, the daily market has been in a downturn in recent years. False advertising has been penalized, product marketing lacks innovation, decision-making efficiency is low, and performance declines. Many established foreign companies are facing embarrassing situations of falling revenues and shrinking markets. In addition, in 2016, China's daily chemical industry will also be affected by Korean products. In the case that the economy has not stabilized, the growth of the daily chemical industry is likely to stagnate.
Third, look at the marketing situation in the beer industry. In the whole year of 2015, China's beer production fell by more than 5% year-on-year. If 2016 is still so down, it means that 1.8-3.5 billion glass bottles and 800-1.3 billion cans have disappeared. It also means that about 160 million cartridges and 160 million corrugated paper orders have disappeared.
Fourth, look at the regulatory form of the pharmaceutical industry. The overall market size of pharmaceutical packaging is less than 20 billion, but due to the lucrative profits and stable orders, it has become the target of competition for printing and packaging companies. However, according to the State Food and Drug Administration on January 25, 2016, about 2,000 pharmaceutical companies will be forced to stop production because they cannot obtain the quality management certification.
Fifth, look at the sales situation in the food industry. In the past few years, China's instant noodle sales have continued to decline. Food giants such as Yizi, Yinlu, Baixiang, Yashili and Want Want have reported news of declining performance. Although some food companies have risen against the market, it is an indisputable fact that the Chinese food industry has bid farewell to the high growth in the past. In 2016, industry orders are likely to continue to decline as economic activity weakens and consumers lack confidence in fast food.
Sixth, look at the transfer of orders from the textile and apparel industry. In 2016, due to the sharp depreciation of the currencies of Southeast Asian countries, the passive appreciation of the renminbi weakened the price competitiveness of mainland products, resulting in the weakening of foreign textile orders and China, but further shifting to low-cost countries such as Southeast Asia and South Asia. In the domestic market, textile and garment enterprises have clearly felt the signs of depression, and some well-known clothing brands have appeared in the store. In 2016, the mainland textile and garment industry has entered a downward adjustment cycle, and this cycle may be very long.
Judging from the above-mentioned industry operations closely related to printing and packaging, the trend of continuous decline in PMI and PPI index is difficult to reverse in the next few months. In the soaring housing prices, stock market shocks, and exchange rate fluctuations, orders in the printing and packaging industry have suffered a sharp decline, and few companies have no choice but to do so. To this end, the printing and packaging enterprises must take the road of integration and integration in order to achieve long-term development. During the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan†period, the market concentration of China's printing and packaging industry will gradually increase, and the scale effect of the packaging industry will be prominent. The appreciation of the RMB and the increase in labor costs will upgrade the packaging industry, and small and medium-sized packaging plants will be forced to withdraw from the market. The packaging industry will present the following three major development trends: First, the transition from “simple packaging†to “innovative packagingâ€; second, “green packaging†becomes an inevitable choice for environmental protection; third, manufacturers will implement packaging integration professional services.
2016 is the year of entering the “Thirteenth Five-Year Planâ€. Many of China’s macroeconomic data and most of the data are in the downside. The traditional industry continues to enter a period of deep adjustment, whether it is real estate or heavy chemical industry, or we have driven China’s economic high speed in the past. The growth of investment is clearly down. So, what is the future of packaging and printing? The quarterly quarter of 2016 is fleeting, and companies in the printing and packaging industry have begun to review and forecast production orders this year to ensure that they use less liquidity to meet their orders.
Then, what will happen to the orders of China's paper packaging industry in 2016? We have to answer this question from the operation of several major industries downstream -
From the sales of the smart terminal industry market. As early as the second half of last year, many second-tier mobile phone manufacturers had different levels of inventory backlog in both carrier channels and dealer channels. In January 2016, Apple’s sales in China fell by 35% from December; while Samsung’s performance was even more bleak. Samsung’s smartphone sales in China fell nearly half in January. Therefore, we can predict that many smartphone manufacturers have a large backlog of inventory, which will further affect orders in the next two or three months.
Second, look at the changes in the performance of the daily chemical products industry. The daily chemical industry is a major customer in the packaging and printing industry. However, under the influence of the economic environment, the daily market has been in a downturn in recent years. False advertising has been penalized, product marketing lacks innovation, decision-making efficiency is low, and performance declines. Many established foreign companies are facing embarrassing situations of falling revenues and shrinking markets. In addition, in 2016, China's daily chemical industry will also be affected by Korean products. In the case that the economy has not stabilized, the growth of the daily chemical industry is likely to stagnate.
Third, look at the marketing situation in the beer industry. In the whole year of 2015, China's beer production fell by more than 5% year-on-year. If 2016 is still so down, it means that 1.8-3.5 billion glass bottles and 800-1.3 billion cans have disappeared. It also means that about 160 million cartridges and 160 million corrugated paper orders have disappeared.
Fourth, look at the regulatory form of the pharmaceutical industry. The overall market size of pharmaceutical packaging is less than 20 billion, but due to the lucrative profits and stable orders, it has become the target of competition for printing and packaging companies. However, according to the State Food and Drug Administration on January 25, 2016, about 2,000 pharmaceutical companies will be forced to stop production because they cannot obtain the quality management certification.
Fifth, look at the sales situation in the food industry. In the past few years, China's instant noodle sales have continued to decline. Food giants such as Yizi, Yinlu, Baixiang, Yashili and Want Want have reported news of declining performance. Although some food companies have risen against the market, it is an indisputable fact that the Chinese food industry has bid farewell to the high growth in the past. In 2016, industry orders are likely to continue to decline as economic activity weakens and consumers lack confidence in fast food.
Sixth, look at the transfer of orders from the textile and apparel industry. In 2016, due to the sharp depreciation of the currencies of Southeast Asian countries, the passive appreciation of the renminbi weakened the price competitiveness of mainland products, resulting in the weakening of foreign textile orders and China, but further shifting to low-cost countries such as Southeast Asia and South Asia. In the domestic market, textile and garment enterprises have clearly felt the signs of depression, and some well-known clothing brands have appeared in the store. In 2016, the mainland textile and garment industry has entered a downward adjustment cycle, and this cycle may be very long.
Judging from the above-mentioned industry operations closely related to printing and packaging, the trend of continuous decline in PMI and PPI index is difficult to reverse in the next few months. In the soaring housing prices, stock market shocks, and exchange rate fluctuations, orders in the printing and packaging industry have suffered a sharp decline, and few companies have no choice but to do so. To this end, the printing and packaging enterprises must take the road of integration and integration in order to achieve long-term development. During the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan†period, the market concentration of China's printing and packaging industry will gradually increase, and the scale effect of the packaging industry will be prominent. The appreciation of the RMB and the increase in labor costs will upgrade the packaging industry, and small and medium-sized packaging plants will be forced to withdraw from the market. The packaging industry will present the following three major development trends: First, the transition from “simple packaging†to “innovative packagingâ€; second, “green packaging†becomes an inevitable choice for environmental protection; third, manufacturers will implement packaging integration professional services.
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